lies:
Calling it now.
No but seriously. It’s a big world, and they’re gonna be spending a lot of time in the Southern Ocean where anything can happen. But if you’re one of the other competitors you’d better get busy.
Heh. Clearly it was never in doubt. 😜
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It’s looking better for Dongfeng with each passing minute.
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Still too close to call. Dongfeng’s sailing about a knot faster than MAPFRE and Brunel.
A couple of side plots:
Brunel, behind MAPFRE, gybed away to the south a few minutes ago. Presumably that looks like a slightly slower course, but when you’re behind with the finish approaching you have to take chances. MAPFRE gybed a few minutes later to cover. Covering makes sense, but there’s a potential downside: If they fool around too much with Brunel it increases the risk that Dongfeng will pass them both for the win.
At the back of the fleet another cool story is playing out. TTToP (blue tracker symbol) and Scallywag (gray tracker symbol) are close together at the bottom of the overall standings. Everyone on TTToP has been saying the last few legs that their goal is to get out of last place by passing Scallywag in the overall standings. But to do that they not only have to beat them; they have to finish with at least one boat between them.
I can’t say for sure, but it looks like Vestas might be that boat. Not only is there a nail-biter at the front of the fleet, there’s a secondary nail-biter at the back. And it’s all going to play out over the next few hours.
Guess the birds will have to wait a bit longer. 😜
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Me too!
MAPFRE has retaken the lead in the western group, which is now heading in toward shore. Brunel is less then a mile behind them, with the no-longer-in-the-running (in terms of overall standings) AkzoNobel in between.
Dongfeng is approaching from the north, roughly 2 miles behind MAPFRE in terms of the distance they’ll need to sail to the finish, but with a faster angle such that they’re (right now) sailing about 3 knots faster. So they’re catching up, but we’ll just have to wait to see if they’ll have enough time to catch them.
I’d planned a long birdwatching outing this morning, but I’m postponing to watch the race finish instead. 😜
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anonsally
replied to your photo “Brunel is still narrowly leading MAPFRE in the western group; Dongfeng…”
I only follow this through your posts but now I am very curious how it will play out!
Me too!
MAPFRE has re-taken the lead in the western group; Brunel is less than a mile behind them (with the no-longer-in-the-running-for-the-overall-win AkzoNobel in between). Dongfeng is chugging down the coast with about 2 miles more to sail to the finish, though they’re also sailing about 3 knots faster over the bottom, with part of that being because they’re at a faster sailing angle and the other part because they’re closer to shore with less adverse current.
I still have no idea who’s going to win. But I’ve cancelled my birdwatching plans for the morning. 😜
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Glad you’re back on the ground! Just in time for the finish. 😀
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I don’t know if you saw Blair talking about the decision in the latest video, which Ugo uploaded about three hours ago:
We were lining up to go on the inside, down toward Germany and along the beaches on the top of Holland; made a late call to go to the west. As a result we lost quite a lot on Brunel and AkzoNobel who had decided to go this way earlier, and doing so we split from Dongfeng who were carrying on down. It’s a tricky one, but at the end of the day we have to do what we think is right to get us there fastest, and both the boats we had to beat are going different ways, and we feel this way’s fastest. Got Brunel about a mile above us now, so we’re gonna have to fight to the end. But that’s the way it is. All good really. Wouldn’t want it any other way.
I think he lays it out pretty well. At first they were covering Dongfeng, and Dongfeng was going inside all the way. But as they got closer to the final decision they decided (where “they” is some combination of Xabi and Joan and the crew as a whole) that the outside route looked better. So even though it meant throwing away their lead, they were willing to switch to the outside.
I don’t think the difference between second and third makes that much difference to them. It’s all about still having a shot at winning. In a weird me-specific way it feels like the choice in LOTR to send the Ring to Mordor. Yeah, it was a dangerous choice, one that increased the risks. But sometimes risks are worth taking.
On your point about them still having a chance to beat Brunel by going inside even if the western route was (somewhat) better, I think there’s probably a bias on their part to want to control their own destiny. That is, if they switched to the west they knew they’d be close to Brunel, on the route that they thought had the best chance of being fastest. So they’d be able to try to beat Brunel with boatspeed. If they stuck with the inside route and it turned out to be slower it’s true that their earlier-today lead over Brunel might still have been enough for them to beat them. But that would have meant relying on the wind gods, rather than their own abilities.
We’ll find out in the next 12 hours or so whether the risk they took was worth it.
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Brunel is still narrowly leading MAPFRE in the western group; Dongfeng and the inshore group are losing ground. But that was expected; they knew they’d be sailing a slower angle for a while. Their hope is that the inshore route will pay off at the very end, when the western group has to fight their way in through light winds.
The whole race is totally going to come down to the last few miles.
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Sunrise on the North Sea. Brunel has taken a tiny lead over MAPFRE in the western group; Dongfeng is sailing 5 miles off the Dutch coast in the east.
Seven teams have covered 45,000 miles in nine months of racing. There has been a collision and sinking, a dismasting, and, tragically, two deaths.
I feel like I’ve come to know the sailors, watching and annotating 1,331 on-board videos (and counting). To me they embody the best part of what it means to be human. I’m proud of all of them, and I can’t wait to see who wins.
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View from the window this morning; everyone is enjoying the sunflowers
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lies:
dreaminsailor
replied to your photoset “Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones. Dongfeng…”I wonder if this also means that Brunel can bear away and make more speed and actually overtake Mapfre now
Seems like Brunel will have a faster angle than MAPFRE as they head for that gap in the exclusion zones. So yeah, they should be able to make up some distance. And of course, Brunel’s position with respect to AkzoNobel doesn’t matter in terms of the overall race. It’s a match race between Brunel and MAPFRE in terms of that outside route.
Super interesting. By giving up the inside route, MAPFRE put themselves in a position where they were likely to end up behind Brunel. So they preferred to be in that position, needing to pass Brunel for the win, than being just ahead of Dongfeng on the inside.
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Have a great flight! Sounds like the finish should be getting close when you’re back in communication.
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At this point, honestly, I agree. I love a come-from-behind victory. But for myself I’ll be thrilled no matter who wins. It’s a no-lose scenario for me.
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dreaminsailor
replied to your photoset “Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones. Dongfeng…”
I wonder if this also means that Brunel can bear away and make more speed and actually overtake Mapfre now
Seems like Brunel will have a faster angle than MAPFRE as they head for that gap in the exclusion zones. So yeah, they should be able to make up some distance. And of course, Brunel’s position with respect to AkzoNobel doesn’t matter in terms of the overall race. It’s a match race between Brunel and MAPFRE in terms of that outside route.
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Split continues.
All the teams have talked in the latest videos about how much this leg has been like a three-day in-port race, with constant maneuvers and hardly any sleep for anyone. It must be quite an emotional ride on board right now. And big conditions: The live helicopter shots of them surfing at 25 knots down the Danish coast in the past few hours were amazing.
Win or lose, they are going to be exhausted when they finish tomorrow.
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Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones. Dongfeng appears to be taking the inshore route, Brunel is going outside, and it looks like MAPFRE has decided to go outside with Brunel.
In the on-board interview they did an hour ago with Libby on Scallywag it sounded like she was saying the inshore route was strongly favored. With Brunel, given that they were behind, taking the less-favored option makes sense; might as well risk it at this point. But for MAPFRE, going outside seems like more of a high-stakes gamble. They were leading Dongfeng (though just barely). But going outside with Brunel means conceding the race if the in-shore route really is better. So Joan and Xabi must believe the outside route really is the way to go.
Charles and Pascal either just won this edition of the race, or just put themselves in third. And with nearly 100 miles of separation zone and no way to get back across it, we might find out well before the finish which it is.
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