lies: Calling it now. No but seriously. It’s a big world, and…

Sunday, June 24th, 2018

lies:

Calling it now.

No but seriously. It’s a big world, and they’re gonna be spending a lot of time in the Southern Ocean where anything can happen. But if you’re one of the other competitors you’d better get busy.

Source

Heh. Clearly it was never in doubt. 😜

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175206634706.

It’s looking better for Dongfeng with each passing minute.

Sunday, June 24th, 2018

It’s looking better for Dongfeng with each passing minute.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175205116231.

Still too close to call. Dongfeng’s sailing about a knot faster…

Sunday, June 24th, 2018

Still too close to call. Dongfeng’s sailing about a knot faster than MAPFRE and Brunel.

A couple of side plots:

Brunel, behind MAPFRE, gybed away to the south a few minutes ago. Presumably that looks like a slightly slower course, but when you’re behind with the finish approaching you have to take chances. MAPFRE gybed a few minutes later to cover. Covering makes sense, but there’s a potential downside: If they fool around too much with Brunel it increases the risk that Dongfeng will pass them both for the win.

At the back of the fleet another cool story is playing out. TTToP (blue tracker symbol) and Scallywag (gray tracker symbol) are close together at the bottom of the overall standings. Everyone on TTToP has been saying the last few legs that their goal is to get out of last place by passing Scallywag in the overall standings. But to do that they not only have to beat them; they have to finish with at least one boat between them.

I can’t say for sure, but it looks like Vestas might be that boat. Not only is there a nail-biter at the front of the fleet, there’s a secondary nail-biter at the back. And it’s all going to play out over the next few hours.

Guess the birds will have to wait a bit longer. 😜

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175204606101.

Me too! MAPFRE has retaken the lead in the western group, which…

Sunday, June 24th, 2018

Me too!

MAPFRE has retaken the lead in the western group, which is now heading in toward shore. Brunel is less then a mile behind them, with the no-longer-in-the-running (in terms of overall standings) AkzoNobel in between.

Dongfeng is approaching from the north, roughly 2 miles behind MAPFRE in terms of the distance they’ll need to sail to the finish, but with a faster angle such that they’re (right now) sailing about 3 knots faster. So they’re catching up, but we’ll just have to wait to see if they’ll have enough time to catch them.

I’d planned a long birdwatching outing this morning, but I’m postponing to watch the race finish instead. 😜

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175203801481.

anonsally replied to your photo “Brunel is still narrowly leading MAPFRE in the western group;…

Sunday, June 24th, 2018

anonsally
replied to your photo “Brunel is still narrowly leading MAPFRE in the western group; Dongfeng…”

I only follow this through your posts but now I am very curious how it will play out!

Me too!

image

MAPFRE has re-taken the lead in the western group; Brunel is less than a mile behind them (with the no-longer-in-the-running-for-the-overall-win AkzoNobel in between). Dongfeng is chugging down the coast with about 2 miles more to sail to the finish, though they’re also sailing about 3 knots faster over the bottom, with part of that being because they’re at a faster sailing angle and the other part because they’re closer to shore with less adverse current.

I still have no idea who’s going to win. But I’ve cancelled my birdwatching plans for the morning. 😜

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175203791941.

So mapfre is behind now… To be honest, I think it would have been a safer call to just stay ahead of dongfeng. There is no certainty about inside vs outside but staying ahead of dongfeng was one certainty and they had the possibility of being ahead of Brunel too. Not sure I agree with their move

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

I don’t know if you saw Blair talking about the decision in the latest video, which Ugo uploaded about three hours ago:

We were lining up to go on the inside, down toward Germany and along the beaches on the top of Holland; made a late call to go to the west. As a result we lost quite a lot on Brunel and AkzoNobel who had decided to go this way earlier, and doing so we split from Dongfeng who were carrying on down. It’s a tricky one, but at the end of the day we have to do what we think is right to get us there fastest, and both the boats we had to beat are going different ways, and we feel this way’s fastest. Got Brunel about a mile above us now, so we’re gonna have to fight to the end. But that’s the way it is. All good really. Wouldn’t want it any other way.

I think he lays it out pretty well. At first they were covering Dongfeng, and Dongfeng was going inside all the way. But as they got closer to the final decision they decided (where “they” is some combination of Xabi and Joan and the crew as a whole) that the outside route looked better. So even though it meant throwing away their lead, they were willing to switch to the outside.

I don’t think the difference between second and third makes that much difference to them. It’s all about still having a shot at winning. In a weird me-specific way it feels like the choice in LOTR to send the Ring to Mordor. Yeah, it was a dangerous choice, one that increased the risks. But sometimes risks are worth taking.

On your point about them still having a chance to beat Brunel by going inside even if the western route was (somewhat) better, I think there’s probably a bias on their part to want to control their own destiny. That is, if they switched to the west they knew they’d be close to Brunel, on the route that they thought had the best chance of being fastest. So they’d be able to try to beat Brunel with boatspeed. If they stuck with the inside route and it turned out to be slower it’s true that their earlier-today lead over Brunel might still have been enough for them to beat them. But that would have meant relying on the wind gods, rather than their own abilities.

We’ll find out in the next 12 hours or so whether the risk they took was worth it.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175197090991.

Brunel is still narrowly leading MAPFRE in the western group;…

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

Brunel is still narrowly leading MAPFRE in the western group; Dongfeng and the inshore group are losing ground. But that was expected; they knew they’d be sailing a slower angle for a while. Their hope is that the inshore route will pay off at the very end, when the western group has to fight their way in through light winds.

The whole race is totally going to come down to the last few miles.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175196352086.

Sunrise on the North Sea. Brunel has taken a tiny lead over…

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

Sunrise on the North Sea. Brunel has taken a tiny lead over MAPFRE in the western group; Dongfeng is sailing 5 miles off the Dutch coast in the east.

Seven teams have covered 45,000 miles in nine months of racing. There has been a collision and sinking, a dismasting, and, tragically, two deaths.

I feel like I’ve come to know the sailors, watching and annotating 1,331 on-board videos (and counting). To me they embody the best part of what it means to be human. I’m proud of all of them, and I can’t wait to see who wins.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175192636096.

lies: dreaminsailor replied to your photoset “Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion…

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

lies:

dreaminsailor
replied to your photoset
“Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones. Dongfeng…”

I wonder if this also means that Brunel can bear away and make more speed and actually overtake Mapfre now

Seems like Brunel will have a faster angle than MAPFRE as they head for that gap in the exclusion zones. So yeah, they should be able to make up some distance. And of course, Brunel’s position with respect to AkzoNobel doesn’t matter in terms of the overall race. It’s a match race between Brunel and MAPFRE in terms of that outside route.

Super interesting. By giving up the inside route, MAPFRE put themselves in a position where they were likely to end up behind Brunel. So they preferred to be in that position, needing to pass Brunel for the win, than being just ahead of Dongfeng on the inside.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175187794606.

To be honest I would still be happier with Brunel winning rather than dongfeng. Poor Bouwe still has to win a race so he actually deserves it probably

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

At this point, honestly, I agree. I love a come-from-behind victory. But for myself I’ll be thrilled no matter who wins. It’s a no-lose scenario for me.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175183093251.

dreaminsailor replied to your photoset “Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones….

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

dreaminsailor
replied to your photoset
“Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones. Dongfeng…”

I wonder if this also means that Brunel can bear away and make more speed and actually overtake Mapfre now

Seems like Brunel will have a faster angle than MAPFRE as they head for that gap in the exclusion zones. So yeah, they should be able to make up some distance. And of course, Brunel’s position with respect to AkzoNobel doesn’t matter in terms of the overall race. It’s a match race between Brunel and MAPFRE in terms of that outside route.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175182744226.

Split continues.All the teams have talked in the latest videos…

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

Split continues.

All the teams have talked in the latest videos about how much this leg has been like a three-day in-port race, with constant maneuvers and hardly any sleep for anyone. It must be quite an emotional ride on board right now. And big conditions: The live helicopter shots of them surfing at 25 knots down the Danish coast in the past few hours were amazing.

Win or lose, they are going to be exhausted when they finish tomorrow.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175182598846.

Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones….

Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

Ooh, split developing with the upcoming exclusion zones. Dongfeng appears to be taking the inshore route, Brunel is going outside, and it looks like MAPFRE has decided to go outside with Brunel.

In the on-board interview they did an hour ago with Libby on Scallywag it sounded like she was saying the inshore route was strongly favored. With Brunel, given that they were behind, taking the less-favored option makes sense; might as well risk it at this point. But for MAPFRE, going outside seems like more of a high-stakes gamble. They were leading Dongfeng (though just barely). But going outside with Brunel means conceding the race if the in-shore route really is better. So Joan and Xabi must believe the outside route really is the way to go.

Charles and Pascal either just won this edition of the race, or just put themselves in third. And with nearly 100 miles of separation zone and no way to get back across it, we might find out well before the finish which it is.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175182141931.

dreaminsailor: lies: Leg 11 They’ve done a lap up and down…

Friday, June 22nd, 2018

dreaminsailor:

lies:

Leg 11

They’ve done a lap up and down the Skagerrak and the Kattegat, and it’s a tight duel between Dongfeng (in the lead) and MAPFRE (less than a mile behind) for the overall Volvo win.

Brunel trails by 12 miles, which is a lot at this point, given how little racecourse there is left before the finish at The Hague. That high-wind reach they’ll be doing after rounding the virtual waypoint up by Norway should be good for Brunel; those are pretty much the conditions in which they blew past Dongfeng and MAPFRE to take the last leg and put themselves in the three-way tie, but I don’t know; that’s a lot of distance to make up. Bouwe’s going to need some luck at this point.

Can we appreciate the fact the vestas, calculating redress, would have 67 points in the end (so an average of a little more of 6 per leg). One of the 0 legs was double points so that would be 5(ish?) Points more. 72 (probably more).

The winner will have 72 points overall. I feel so bad for vestas…. Way too unlucky. I know there’s a lot more to factor into what the actual score would be but damn they deserved some more good luck.

There definitely was a lot of luck, good and bad, that got unevenly distributed in this edition of the race.

Also, as of a few minutes ago, there’s a new leader (tracker has them even, but MAPFRE is ahead of Dongfeng and to weather as they beat toward the virtual waypoint). ¡Vamos MAPFRE! 😀

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175153057236.

Leg 11 They’ve done a lap up and down the Skagerrak and the…

Friday, June 22nd, 2018

Leg 11

They’ve done a lap up and down the Skagerrak and the Kattegat, and it’s a tight duel between Dongfeng (in the lead) and MAPFRE (less than a mile behind) for the overall Volvo win.

Brunel trails by 12 miles, which is a lot at this point, given how little racecourse there is left before the finish at The Hague. That high-wind reach they’ll be doing after rounding the virtual waypoint up by Norway should be good for Brunel; those are pretty much the conditions in which they blew past Dongfeng and MAPFRE to take the last leg and put themselves in the three-way tie, but I don’t know; that’s a lot of distance to make up. Bouwe’s going to need some luck at this point.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175149849591.

Retrospective on Leg 10 from Brunel.

Tuesday, June 19th, 2018

Retrospective on Leg 10 from Brunel.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/175049665721.

a-solitary-sea-rover: lies:@a-solitary-sea-rover: You can tell…

Thursday, June 14th, 2018

a-solitary-sea-rover:

lies:

@a-solitary-sea-rover: You can tell your mom her team is absolutely in this. Can’t wait to see who pulls it out in the next leg!

Oh, she knows!

Way to keep Mom in the loop. 🙂

Honestly, this is one of those things that happens every so often in sports that if you put it in a movie would be criticized as unbelievable. Ten legs over nine months around the ENTIRE WORLD, and now because of some incredibly badass sailing and a pass in the last few miles the top three teams are going into the final leg tied on points. They’re far enough ahead of the rest of the fleet that none of the others can threaten them, so the final result will be determined by whatever order those three boats finish in.

Any of them can win. MAPFRE, who started incredibly strong and are still right there. Dongfeng, who have sailed so consistently well that even though they haven’t won a leg they would still have a big overall lead if it weren’t for the wind gods destroying them coming into Newport. And Brunel, who started off doing relatively poorly but have come alive at the right time.

Leg 11 starts a week from today, and I have no idea who’s going to win. 😀

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/174905674706.

a-solitary-sea-rover: lies: Are you kidding me? Counting…

Thursday, June 14th, 2018

a-solitary-sea-rover:

lies:

Are you kidding me? Counting Dongfeng’s bonus point for overall elapsed time, the top three boats in the Volvo will go into the final leg TIED on points.

It is to boggle!

Is that regardless of how Dongfeng finishes? Because they’re still out there.

Sorry; yeah, that assumes they finish in the current order.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/174893191341.

@a-solitary-sea-rover: You can tell your mom her team is…

Thursday, June 14th, 2018

@a-solitary-sea-rover: You can tell your mom her team is absolutely in this. Can’t wait to see who pulls it out in the next leg!

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/174893159181.

Are you kidding me? Counting Dongfeng’s bonus point for overall…

Thursday, June 14th, 2018

Are you kidding me? Counting Dongfeng’s bonus point for overall elapsed time, the top three boats in the Volvo will go into the final leg TIED on points.

It is to boggle!

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/174892921311.