I noticed that Professor Pollkatz hadn’t updated his very interesting Bush approval ratings graph in a while, and since I’d been reading that Bush was dropping in the polls again, I wanted to get a graphic representation of things. So I went to PollingReport.com’s Bush job ratings page, and whipped up the following (click on the graph for a larger version):
(Update: As of 13 May 2004, I’ve updated the polling data in the graph to reflect the latest figures.)
As you can see, the pattern I discussed previously (in The silk-purse president and Bush descending) continues. Bush’s poll numbers, in the absence of a big event like 9/11, the premature celebration of the not-quite-end of the Iraq war, or the capture of Saddam Hussein, trend only in one direction: down. Without a national crisis to rally us around the flag, or a dramatic success story with good visuals, people tend to move in only one direction in terms of Bush approval: away from him.
I’m sure this isn’t a secret to Karl Rove. Without some big event to bolster Bush’s approval at just the right time, he’s toast in November.
There’s a rumour among tinfoil-hat liberals that Bush actually has Osama bin Laden on ice, either breathing or not, and is just waiting for the right moment to announce his capture and/or killing. I don’t know that I buy into that, since the conspiracy necessary to pull off something like that would be tricky, and risky. But if Osama suddenly does appear, just in time to save Bush’s second term, say around September or October, I’d be awfully suspicious that there was hanky-panky involved.
Anyway, that’s a conspiracy for another day.