Bush’s Poll Problem

I noticed that Professor Pollkatz hadn’t updated his very interesting Bush approval ratings graph in a while, and since I’d been reading that Bush was dropping in the polls again, I wanted to get a graphic representation of things. So I went to PollingReport.com’s Bush job ratings page, and whipped up the following (click on the graph for a larger version):

(Update: As of 13 May 2004, I’ve updated the polling data in the graph to reflect the latest figures.)

As you can see, the pattern I discussed previously (in The silk-purse president and Bush descending) continues. Bush’s poll numbers, in the absence of a big event like 9/11, the premature celebration of the not-quite-end of the Iraq war, or the capture of Saddam Hussein, trend only in one direction: down. Without a national crisis to rally us around the flag, or a dramatic success story with good visuals, people tend to move in only one direction in terms of Bush approval: away from him.

I’m sure this isn’t a secret to Karl Rove. Without some big event to bolster Bush’s approval at just the right time, he’s toast in November.

There’s a rumour among tinfoil-hat liberals that Bush actually has Osama bin Laden on ice, either breathing or not, and is just waiting for the right moment to announce his capture and/or killing. I don’t know that I buy into that, since the conspiracy necessary to pull off something like that would be tricky, and risky. But if Osama suddenly does appear, just in time to save Bush’s second term, say around September or October, I’d be awfully suspicious that there was hanky-panky involved.

Anyway, that’s a conspiracy for another day.

5 Responses to “Bush’s Poll Problem”

  1. onan Says:

    I find it surprising that the Fox polls have some tendency to be lower than the rest of the pack at any given moment.

  2. John Callender Says:

    If you look at the details on that page at pollingreport.com, you can see that there are subtle differences in the wording of each poll’s question, as well as in the specifics of the sample population that they poll. While I don’t see anything in the information about the Fox poll that would explain the differences in the results, there probably are other factors that figure into it that aren’t included in the available information: What time of day do they make the calls? How much do they pay the people asking the questions, and what sort of training/supervision do they give them? Do they make calls from a busy call center or a quiet office? And so on.

  3. left wing nut Says:

    The point is that Fox is the propaganda mouthpiece of the Bush administration so you’d think they would poll him higher.

  4. Ken Valz Says:

    I would like to see an overlay comparison of Bush I and Bush II and Carter.

    This is a wonderful graphics/data display.

    Ken Valz
    Olympia, Wa

  5. John Callender Says:

    If you go to The silk purse president you’ll get exactly the graphs you’re looking for. They’re really interesting.

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