What do you think of Brunel’s chances of winning the whole thing?

Here are the standings after adding in the (double) points from Leg 9:

Dongfeng 50+10=60
Mapfre 53+6=59
Brunel 42+15=57
Akzonobel 36+12=48
Vestas 28+8=36
Scallywag 27+2=29
TTToP 22+4=26

There are two short (single points) legs remaining, where boats get 1 point for finishing, plus 1 point for each competitor they beat, plus a bonus point for first place. So: first = 8 points, second = 6, third = 5, etc.

There is also a single bonus point for the team that has the lowest elapsed time over the race as a whole, which at this point looks like it will be going to Dongfeng. So give them an extra point.

Finally, there’s a tiebreaker based on the in-port race standings, which currently are exactly the same as the overall standings except with MAPFRE and Dongfeng switched; i.e., MAPFRE first and Dongfeng second.

So for Brunel to take first place overall they would need to gain 5 points on Dongfeng and 3 points on MAPFRE over the next two legs. Not inconceivable, especially if one of those two has a gear failure or some other big problem. But it’s an uphill climb.

Brunel has been very strong lately. The combination of Bouwe’s experience and Peter’s intensity, analytic rigor, and grind-it-out incremental improvement is paying off.

I think that performance-wise the top three boats are all super-close. It could come down to tactics and luck in the remaining tricky coastal racing.

Reposted from http://lies.tumblr.com/post/174371873271.

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