Noah Does the Math on Hillary’s Chances
From Timothy Noah in Slate: Hillary Clinton, Fairy Princess:
Here’s a rule I would like every political reporter, campaign official, TV talking head, and politician in the United States to follow. Go ahead and say, if you like, that Hillary Clinton retains a serious chance of winning the Democratic nomination. If you say this, however, you must describe a set of circumstances whereby this could happen. Try not to make it sound like a fairy tale.
He goes on to explore this in detail. For an Obama supporter, it’s a reassuring exercise.
May 4th, 2008 at 11:34 am
The one thing that Noah doesn’t take into consideration is how the general public including soft Republicans and Independents poll closer to the election. I think this will play more into the decision of the super delegates than the popular vote in the primaries or the pledged delegate count. Remember the super delegates were instituted by Democrats after the far left nominated an anti war liberal, Mondale, during an unpopular war. He was trounced, loosing every state but Massachusetts. The purpose of the super delegates is to keep this from happening again, they are for the most part political insiders who understand politics. It will be up to them to determine who is the most elect able.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:02 am
I predict a good size win for Obama in NC (+6 to +9 % pts)
narrow loss to Clinton in Indiana (+2 to +5% for Clinton)
the slugfest continues
unless the supers stampede over to the Obama camp (that has been slowly happening, tho stampede wouldn’t be accurate, more like whittling away at the Clinton ‘inevitability’)
The numbers don’t look good for HRC unless she can ramrod thru the Michigan vote (Obama wasn’t even on the ballot!) and the FL vote (hey, you wanted an early primary that wouldn’t count? well you got one that wouldn’t count, now sd&stfu). I predict the Clintons insist upon ‘going nuclear’ which is going to burn millions of voters and hand the election to McSame. Brilliant move fucktards (please excuse my language, just quoting the queen of civility)
May 7th, 2008 at 6:47 am
wow I was close in IN, but underestimated the Obama wave in NC
IN +1.8% Clinton
NC +14.7% Obama
Delegates IN Clinton 37, Obama 33
Delegates NC Obama 58, Clinton 42
net gain of 12 more delegates for Obama
The math for Clinton does not look good at all (unless she can break the rules and seat MI (where Obama wasn’t even on the *%&#^!% ballot!) and FL)
Expect more supers to move to Obama.
Either Dem will defeat McSame in Nov, but Obama will have giant coat tails helping to win many other Dem races. Rethugglicanism is dead, the rethugs killed conservatism with their greed, perversion, corruption, hubris and just plain stupidity. Good riddance @$$holes!
Maybe the race in 2012 will be Dems vs Progressives?
May 7th, 2008 at 7:05 am
Don’t get too cocky, look at what happened in the elections in England, the Labor party lost big, these things are cyclical.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:29 am
The cycle as you call it is still swinging hard to the left. Dem turnout is at record levels, dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at an all time high, the economy is in tatters from mismanagment and corruption and your one big solution is to cut taxes? grow. the. fuck. up. will you? If this is the big civilizational war that you douchebags keep whinging about, then you 1%ers damn well better step up to the plate and accept whatever tax burden it takes to WIN the damn thing. I only mention the 1%ers because they are the ultra rich who actually set the course of the rotten ship Republicanism.
shrubbie is the most unpopular president in modern history. The R brand is so bad that even conservatives are describing it as dog food (tainted dog food that would be taken off the shelves to be more precise - google it).
rwnj - you should set your sights on the 2010 midterms and unseating President Obama in 2012. A good role for you wingnuts would be fiscal conservatives: restraining and focusing Fed spending so it isn’t as wasteful as it might be. The social stuff is laughably 18th century (eeek! a brown person!) so good luck with that in the globalized 21st century.
Personally I worry that you rwnjs are going to JFK BHO. The secret service lapses in Dallas (of all places) makes this a very real possibility. Especially once the new administration starts digging up evidence of the real corruption volcano that is the neocon/shrubbco regime.
May 7th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
I think Hillary should finish out the rest of the primaries, and then gracefully step aside.
May 7th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Ok, so one of my bosses is a big Democrat, but a reasonable one. The scuttle butt he heard is that Hillary has worked out a deal with the Obama camp that will pay for the personal money she has put into the race if she will bow out in a few weeks. He said she dumped another 6 mil into the race just recently. Have you heard anything like that?
I told him I wouldn’t trust Hillary with that deal for all the tea in China. I can just see her in a couple weeks with tears saying it was the hardest thing she has ever done to quit the race, then a few weeks before the convention, after she has cashed the check come back with an announcement that Michigan and Florida count and she’s back!
May 7th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
shcb has a trusted source for scuttle butt. You get your talking points from Senator Craig?
shcb, I do not think your Hillary scenario is too plausible, see, there would have to be a number of people in on the plot and all would have to keep quiet for quite a long time, and Obamaa is much smarter than that. However, it is much better than some of your other wild conspiracy theories.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
But Knarly a conspiracy is usually an illegal act when it is discussed in a forum like this. A conspiracy theory is derogatory term for a goofy, far fetched conspiracy that only has a snowball’s chance in hell of being true. I don’t think there is anything illegal in the Democrats paying off Hillary’s campaign debts, even if they were to herself. It would probably be a fiscally wise move. Ten or twelve million to get her to go away would probably be cheaper than fighting her. And that doesn’t count the time Obama is wasting on Hillary that could be better used on McCain. From what I read today that seems to be what the Obama camp is doing, they are gearing up for the general election. But she is shrewd, I wouldn’t count her out yet.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:04 am
shcb, why the quibble? I was complimenting your improved ability to construct scenarios. There is no need for such a lame quibble as that you had presented a conspiracy to deceive theory rather than a conspiracy to commit a crime theory.
By either description, the conspiracy theory you have shown here is a great improvement from past attempt such as your conspiracy theory about 19 loser Arabs outwitting NORAD, the FBI, the CIA and others to completely destroy three skyscrapers in Manhattan, inflict massive damage to the Pentagon and crash flight 93 into a strip mine (yet send wreckage miles away) using nothing more than boxcutters and the magical ability to temporary suspend the laws of physics.
However, your conspiracy to deceive theory about Hillary, while an improvement on your silly official 911 conspiracy theory, still does not have the ring of truth.
Besides, if HRC is as shrewd as you say then she probably wouldn’t be losing in the first place.
As for this new conspiray to deceive theory you [present here, do you think Obama or his supporters are stupid enough to hand over millions of dollars to a Clinton when the race is already all but won? Also, even if that was in America’s greater interest to “pay her off” do you really think they would be so naïve as to do so without an iron-clad arrangement that would ensure that the slimy Clinton would keep her word?
May 8th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
There are no “iron clad” agreements with the Clintons. The agreement would probably be more with the DNC than Obama, but Obama would be involved in the negotiations because money is fungible and money that goes to her wouldn’t be going to Obama later on. I’m guessing she is using the 12 million from Simon and Schuster and by my calculations she only has about 3 mil left. I would think she will stay in until that is gone hoping for a scandal that would knock Obama out of the race, the Clinton camp is working around the clock trying to find or manufacture one. Then she will settle for 6 to 8 million for her next Senate run. I would think this is her only chance at the presidency so she may as well go for broke. She didn’t do much for the 12 million but S&S won’t make that same mistake twice so this is it.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:06 am
shcb,
Interesting theories. You obviously know more about this than I, so what would you say about my suspicion that Hillary has access to far greater $ resources than is publically known? That’s is just a wild speculation based on her connections.
Off topic, but I wonder if you are giving PR support to McCain?
His campaign office’s attack on Obama (because of Obama’s statement that McCain “is losing his bearings”) has all the characteristics of your usual comments. It is attacking a straw man argument, it is hypocritical by being a great example of exactly what it is condemning, it is relentlessly misleading).
Perhaps this is just all that Republicans still know how to do, or that all Republicans fight in this same dirty way? http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/mccain-advisor.html
May 9th, 2008 at 10:08 am
BTW, The Republican attack was easily repuilsed: “Clearly losing one’s bearings has no relation to age,” Burton said in an e-mailed statement.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:09 am
repulsed - thwarted
May 9th, 2008 at 11:33 am
I really don’t listen to much of the back and forth bickering in these elections, unless there is some substance to it. McCain is old and Obama is a Democrat, Democrats are perceived as being softer on defense than Republicans so our enemies would like that. Other than both statements being stereotypes what substance is there. Many Democrats have been strong on defense and many good leaders have been old in the case of FDR, both at the same time. An election is kind of like a sword fight, statements like these are like all the flailing around between lunges. They’re meant to test the opponent, see where his weaknesses are, what gets under his skin. It also tests what tweaks the voters, in either direction. The trick is to send out these test balloons without alienating voters that may vote for you. Like in the sword fight, you want to test your opponent without opening yourself up to a lunge.
To your question, yes she has money coming in from other places, but I think that 12 mil is all she has of her own money that she is willing to spend.
As to my predictions above about Hillary staying in to the bitter end, I don’t have a very good track record when it comes to predicting these things. The smart money says she is all but done, so if you have a trip to Vegas planned, take what I say and bet the opposite. It’s just too much fun to play the what if game, and I have nothing to lose by being wrong.
May 10th, 2008 at 6:38 am
shcb - you should know better than try to waste Knarly’s time with conspiracy theories. He doesn’t have time for that crap! :-)
May 10th, 2008 at 7:19 am
At least this one is plausible, and probably not even illegal.
May 10th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
That’s right Lefty, my times bin a’wastin sorting through so many of your administration’s stupid conspiracy theories, like all them Iranian explosives & other weapons flooding into Iraq:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2008/05/iraq-the-elusiv.html
No-one has any time left for all that Repugnant bushlit anymore. The clock is ticking, you rwnj’s better pull another 911 or you’ll never win the election this fall.
May 10th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
we aren’t going to win this year, unless the D’s give it to us, it’s cyclical. we’ll be back, we will win one of the houses in two years and an R will be president in 8. It’s cyclical.