dendroica:

A Few Winners, But Many More Losers With Climate Change in the Southwest

Dramatic distribution losses and a few major distribution gains are forecasted for southwestern bird and reptile species as the climate changes, according to just-published research by scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of New Mexico, and Northern Arizona University.

Overall, the study forecasted species distribution losses – that is, where species are able to live – of nearly half for all but one of the 5 reptile species they examined, including for the iconic chuckwalla. The threatened Sonoran (Morafka’s) desert tortoise, however, is projected to experience little to no habitat losses from climate change.

Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. For example, black-throated sparrows and gray vireos are projected to experience major gains in breeding habitat, but pygmy nuthatches, sage thrashers and Williamson sapsuckers are forecasted to experience large losses in breeding habitat, in some cases by as much as 80 percent. Thus, these three species might be expected to experience large future population declines. The iconic pinyon jay is expected to experience from one-fourth to one-third loss in breeding habitat in the future, as its welfare is tied to declining pinyon pine habitat.

“Not surprisingly, whether a species is projected to be a winner or a loser depends primarily on its natural history and habitat needs and requirements,” said USGS scientist Charles van Riper III, the lead author on the study. “Land managers should be aware of these potential changes so that they can adjust their management practices accordingly.”

On birds:

Overall: Black-throated sparrow and gray vireo are projected to experience major gains in breeding habitat. In contrast, pygmy nuthatches, sage thrashers and Williamson sapsuckers are projected to experience large losses in breeding habitat. Thus, these three species might be expected to experience large future population declines. (Note: species are linked to their in-depth report summaries.)

• Black-throated sparrow: breeding range projected to increase by 34-47 percent between 2010 and 2099.
• Gray vireo: breeding range projected to increase from 58-71 percent between 2010 and 2099.
• Virginia’s warbler: breeding range projected to decrease slightly, by 1.5-7 percent between 2010 and 2099.
• Sage thrasher: breeding range projected to decrease by 78 percent between 2010 and 2099.
• Pinyon jay: breeding range projected to decrease by 25-31 percent between 2010 and 2099.
• Pygmy nuthatch: breeding range projected to decrease by 75-81 percent between 2010 and 2099
• Williamson’s sapsucker: breeding range projected to decrease by 73-78 percent between 2010-2099.

(Read more: USGS Release)

Image: Pygmy Nuthatch / National Park Service

Pygmy nuthatches are really neat birds. I hope they make it through the Anthropocene funnel. A world without them would be a poorer world.

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