Elder-Bush national security advisor Brent Scowcroft had words for the younger Bush during his remarks at a centrist think tank luncheon yesterday. From the WaPo: Scowcroft skeptical vote will stabilize Iraq.
According to Scowcroft, the election in Iraq will not make things better. In fact, it could well impel the country into civil war, as the insurgency morphs into an open Sunni rebellion against Shiite rule, with the Kurds then seceding.
I realize we’ve been hearing this “Iraq is on the brink of civil war” stuff for a long time now (basically since the invasion, if you count Steve Gilliard’s frequent predictions). But the predictions carry more weight from someone like Scowcroft, and apparently he’s not alone in thinking that way, at least among people who actually analyze things to determine likely outcomes before choosing a course of action.
Fortunately for the life-expectency of the current US policy (which, yes, would be “unfortunately” if you’re concerned about achieving positive results), Bush isn’t one of those people, so we can expect this hole-digging operation in Iraq to continue uninterrupted, even if (actually, especially if) it fails to deliver any measurable benefits.