Where’s My Bicycle? (v2.0)
Five o’clock Christmas morning, I run downstairs, and look under the tree, and what do I find? Uncle Alfresco dead on the floor, shot through the back of the head. Plus… no bicycle.
— Steve Martin as Vinnie in Nora Ephron’s My Blue Heaven
Less than two weeks to go now, and I’m getting anxious for my October surprise. I wrote about this back in May, in Bush poll numbers: yup, still dropping:
The obvious choice would be the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden. Or if that doesn’t pan out, I guess they might try an attack on Syria.
It’s like being a kid again. What will Daddy give us for Christmas? Will it be a bicycle? Or a BB gun?
I think it’s a little late for the Osama-on-ice scenario. If they had him they would have trotted him out already. And I think airstrikes on Iranian nuke facilities probably make more sense than an attack on Syria at this point. I guess if I had to put my money on something, it would be on that.
Other speculation:
- The folks at democraticunderground think maybe another ‘preznit gives me turkee’ photo-op in Baghdad: October surprise: Would Bush make another visit to Baghdad?
- See also OctoberSurprise.net and October surprise blog!
It would really shock me if we didn’t get something. And I was thinking about it, and thinking about how whatever it was probably wouldn’t be anything I’d thought of (hence the “surprise” part), when I came across this photo at First Draft (Happy Kerry photo: Rock star edition):
And I don’t know; for some reason my mind suddenly flashed to Bobby Kennedy at the Biltmore Hotel. I mean, if the point of my thinking about this is to try to sink to the lowest possible level, to imagine what people with no scruples might do if they got desperate enough, then why not? Why wouldn’t they just assassinate him? I mean, we’re talking about a group of people with a demonstrated willingness to kill people (lots of people, actually) in pursuit of their political agenda. What’s one more?
Looks at those crowds. There’s an energy there, an excitement — and a degree of chaos. How hard would it be? It wouldn’t even need to be sanctioned from on-high. If you’ve been paying attention you know how crazy it’s getting out there. The country is polarized in a way it hasn’t been since, well, since the last time folks with guns decided to start rearranging the domestic political picture.
I can hear you telling me I need to lighten up, and I’m sure you’re right. I tell myself the same thing. But still. As a country we’ve been through this before. Why couldn’t it happen again?
In the caption for the above photo, Athenae wrote, “He’s gonna be a Beatle before all this is over.”
Right. But which one?
October 20th, 2004 at 6:58 am
I think one of the greater dangers we face is the assumption that “it couldn’t happen here.” It could. It has before and it undoubtedly will again. Not merely a conspiracy to assassinate (or a random crazy), but a slide into fascism, and it’s times like the last three years that are the most fertile ground for such things.
This blind assumption that “this is AMERICA, we are immune” is part of the reason we never really gave the consequences of 2000’s disputed election enough weight–we assumed it was a fluke, and didn’t make any real effort to make sure it could never happen again. It didn’t scare us enough, and so now it looks like it’s going to happen again.
I do not think that terrible things will happen here, this time (save another ulcer-inducing post-election controversey). But it COULD…now more so than usual, and as unhappy as I am with Bush, it could be from either side. There certainly are warning signs from this administration. I’m sure they will fade away into obscurity, but…that won’t stop me from keeping one eye open.
October 20th, 2004 at 7:53 am
I would like to add that to compare John Kerry with bobby kennedy is a bit presumptuous. Bobby Kennedy was a threat to an established order, and he dared challenge the electorate – his own electorate – up front. John Kerry does no such thing. he plays it pretty darn safe. Therefore, it is in no one’s interest to eliminate him. He is no one’s patron saint and should not be glorified. He is merely an alternative to Bush, with about the same command of people’s dreams as Al Gore.
Now, what if screamin’ Howard dean had gotten the nomination? his straight-talking and confrontational dish-ups are intellectually more comparable to bobby Kennedy, and Dean would’ve made mincemeat of Bush-Cheney in terms of demagogery. I could see it happening to him. I invite anyone to comment on this…
October 20th, 2004 at 8:06 am
Atrios and Digby have been musing on this, as well, especially the latter; Commander Codpiece parachuting into Iraq is one of the options. Someone else, though–it coulda been one of those guys, but I’m too lazy to go look right now–suggested that it might be a surprise in the same sense as the original one, i.e., not something that HAPPENS but something that is WITHHELD, just as the original was Bush Sr. & Reagan’s negotiating with terrorists/kidnappers prior to the election wasn’t revealed until much later. The CIA report that names names is an example in this category. A draft would be another. Any number of things.
October 20th, 2004 at 8:07 am
I would think his security had already gone thru and performed a strip, if not a rectal, search on everyone within spitting distance.
October 20th, 2004 at 9:07 am
1. Please give Bush credit. So far, at least, he has NOT manufactured WMD to plant in the Iraqi desert. Lots of people assumed he would. He hasn’t.
2. :op
3. I hope Edwards hasn’t had an affair. And I sure hope there aren’t pictures. I wouldn’t know.
If 1 and 3 don’t pan out, I can tell you what the October Surprise will be. (Already submitted to http://www.NameTheOctoberSurprise.com), and it isn’t anything fancy.
It will be a video, shown over and over on TV, of “never-before-seen” atrocities committed by Saddam. Things like beatings, beheadings, torture, and footage of Halabjah.
Want to see the advance footage? (Notice the pre-dating, that keeps it on top of her list)…
http://www.BenadorAssociates.com/eleanaschoice.php
Wondering who Eleana Benador is? Why, just look at her client list…
http://www.BenadorAssociates.com/experts.php