Here’s the counterweight to the piece I posted the other day that spoke of some folks predicting a Bush landslide in November. From Michael of Discourse.net: Election polls and predictions. Michael sees a landslide coming, but the way he figures it, it’s going to be a landslide for Kerry.
As stated previously, an objective analysis of the data cannot support both positions: either the data clearly show an oncoming Bush landslide, an oncoming Kerry landslide, or neither. My own take as of now: Kerry will win by a significant, but not overwhelming, margin. He’ll take all, or nearly all, of the solid-blue states from 2000, will lose all, or nearly all, of the solid-red states from 2000, but will outperform Bush sufficiently in the purple states to make the difference.