Michael of Discourse.net on the Coming Kerry Landslide

Here’s the counterweight to the piece I posted the other day that spoke of some folks predicting a Bush landslide in November. From Michael of Discourse.net: Election polls and predictions. Michael sees a landslide coming, but the way he figures it, it’s going to be a landslide for Kerry.

As stated previously, an objective analysis of the data cannot support both positions: either the data clearly show an oncoming Bush landslide, an oncoming Kerry landslide, or neither. My own take as of now: Kerry will win by a significant, but not overwhelming, margin. He’ll take all, or nearly all, of the solid-blue states from 2000, will lose all, or nearly all, of the solid-red states from 2000, but will outperform Bush sufficiently in the purple states to make the difference.

5 Responses to “Michael of Discourse.net on the Coming Kerry Landslide”

  1. rick pietz Says:

    I think your analysis is probably right. I don’t think it will be the squeeker that the 2000 election was, and I think too many people are disenchanted w/ Bush. On the other hand, I think your analysis only holds true barring the success of that much anticipated October surprise. If one actually does occur, I think all bets are off, and the outcome will depend on the media coverage at the time.

  2. thomas Says:

    I have to agree with Rick. The worse things look for bushco. the greater the chance of something spectacular happening. Terrorist attack (nudge-wink), terrorist caught (say no more), suspended elections, preemptive strike against Islamostan. I really expect Bush to pop an o-ring and say something really stupid in one of the debates. Something he won’t be able to shake. I heard him speak to a crowd last weekend and the dude is loosing it.

  3. AnoCan Says:

    But don’t forget the Big Bush Wild Card: just happening to find Osama Bin Laden right before the election.

    Think it won’t happen? Think again.

  4. Sean Says:

    “…either the data clearly show an oncoming Bush landslide, an oncoming Kerry landslide, or neither.”

    Not true. There’s no way to predict complex results based on information from samplings. It’s like the weather. There’s far too much chaos involved from the small, local areas to be able to predict with any accuracy what the overall effect will be. So you CAN have the same data interpreted in two completely opposite directions at once.

  5. John Callender Says:

    Well, that’s the same thing as saying “neither,” isn’t it?

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