Bush Poll Numbers: Yup, Still Dropping
Professor Pollkatz still hasn’t updated his very interesting Bush approval ratings graph, so I’ve updated my own version based the latest numbers from PollingReport.com’s Bush job ratings page (click on the graph for a larger version):
The pattern I’ve discussed several times previously (see The silk-purse president, Bush descending, and Bush’s poll problem) continues. Except for those upticks corresponding to 9/11, the “Mission Accomplished” photo op, and the capture of Saddam, Bush’s support has always eroded. Which makes sense, given that his actual job performance by every objective measure has been abysmal.
Anyway, we’re now getting down in the range where his election in November becomes increasingly doubtful. If Rove & Co. didn’t already have some sort of October surprise in the works to try to fluff him up just in time to squeak into a second term, they’re certainly working on one now. What will it be?
The obvious choice would be the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden. Or if that doesn’t pan out, I guess they might try an attack on Syria.
It’s like being a kid again. What will Daddy give us for Christmas? Will it be a bicycle? Or a BB gun?
May 13th, 2004 at 8:26 am
I wonder if another September 11 type attack would help this time or hinder. My money would be on the latter, AQ’s maybe too, which is why I am gettting nervous.
May 13th, 2004 at 8:45 am
So much cyninism. And, I wish it weren’t so deserved.
You know, a failed assassination attempt on Baby Bush, and the country ralleys around him through the election.
Doubtful, but it may be the easiest to contrive.
May 13th, 2004 at 1:42 pm
Before you go jumping down the guy’s throat again, search more stats. I’m sure that the approval ratings of every US president looks exactly like this.
May 13th, 2004 at 2:03 pm
The reason an October surprise wouldn’t work is that it wouldn’t be a surprise. People are expecting it. While his overall poll numbers are in the average-to-crummy range, it’s his trustworthiness that is much worse than any incumbent running for re-election.
Also, he’s tried his darnedest to link Iraq and the war on terror. Well, now the two are linked in the public’s mind, and Iraq is dragging him down on his strongest issue.
I think he might try an October Surprise, but I think it will backfire.
May 13th, 2004 at 2:15 pm
>>Before you go jumping down the guy’s throat again, search more stats. I’m sure that the approval ratings of every US president looks exactly like this.<<
What a remarkable thing for you to not only assert, but to actually be sure of. As to the suggestion that I should spend more time looking at the statistics before spouting off with my opinions, guess what? I actually did just that. Amazing, eh?
You might consider doing the same, if only for the sake of novelty. You could begin with this URL, linked to from the piece above:
http://www.lies.com/blog/archives/001140.html
May 13th, 2004 at 3:01 pm
I think any terrorist attack between now and the election would have the opposite effect of Spain – Americans’ fear, now at a low simmer, would boil over and rocket Bush back into office, if not President for Life.
Capturing Osama, if they haven’t already, is a double-edged sword. It would be great PR, but having him out there also keeps the fear going. Without him, it’s harder to keep drumming 9/11 to death.
May 14th, 2004 at 7:33 am
Richard — an October surprise would indeed work, because the majority are idiots. Idiots who aren’t expecting it. Luckily, the idiots are already going to vote for Bush based on the sole fact that he’s an incumbent, so the PR tactics aimed at the foolish majority are just going to be a waste of money really.
May 14th, 2004 at 9:35 am
Regarding an “October surprise”, I wrote a little fiction/editorial piece about the idea and who might be used as the ‘surprise’ guest. It was published at uber.nu
The link is here, should anyone wish to see it:
http://www.uber.nu/docs/do.cgi/20040409
(To Lies.com moderator: please delete this if you don’t feel it’s appropriate for your site, and my apologies if I’ve offended.)
May 14th, 2004 at 11:57 am
Here are some more pollkatz updates:
http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm
http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/W_and_HW.htm
May 15th, 2004 at 2:12 pm
Right about now, the GOP should be scrambling to find a “viable” presidential candidate! Nah!
January 2nd, 2005 at 12:50 am
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